USDream2Dust
06-06 11:09 PM
When it comes to house or condo or town house, it is always location location and location. If you think buying a house or condo just to put on rent is foolishness and not calculated risk, I cannot argue with you to fill up pages on forum and again I don't want to give you a lesson there. Like other things in life, you have discover your own way to make money may be in renting or may be owning a store or just doing your job.
Any way, coming back to first time home buyers, it is once in lifetime opportunity to get houses in high demand areas, and if people have good solid job (or multiple income sources with working spouse) and credit, with plans to live there for atleast 3-5 years, I don't think there should be any reason not to buy it.
There has always been more land and if there wasn't more land in US, it may start occupying ocean to build houses. So I don't think there was ever in history a question whether people would occupy every inch of land. But still there was a boom and people were buying 4-5 houses when they can only afford one. Everybody knows what happened after that. But yes in Good location, there is always shortage and there is shortage right now too. Now good location is a subjectable term. You can go 40 miles off any major city and live in woods and consider it as a good location. So we have to be careful there. But yes prices are low compared to boom time and interest rates have been historically low. If the above two are not good point to take risk, then you are not in right business of taking risk.
Hey nobody can predict tomorrow. You can get hit by a bus and then who cares about money and house :).
Life life king size :) may be after 10 years your GC is denied, but then for 10 years you lived in half million dollar house and enjoyed every second of it, rather than living in one bedroom apt.
Chill out and have a good night
Any way, coming back to first time home buyers, it is once in lifetime opportunity to get houses in high demand areas, and if people have good solid job (or multiple income sources with working spouse) and credit, with plans to live there for atleast 3-5 years, I don't think there should be any reason not to buy it.
There has always been more land and if there wasn't more land in US, it may start occupying ocean to build houses. So I don't think there was ever in history a question whether people would occupy every inch of land. But still there was a boom and people were buying 4-5 houses when they can only afford one. Everybody knows what happened after that. But yes in Good location, there is always shortage and there is shortage right now too. Now good location is a subjectable term. You can go 40 miles off any major city and live in woods and consider it as a good location. So we have to be careful there. But yes prices are low compared to boom time and interest rates have been historically low. If the above two are not good point to take risk, then you are not in right business of taking risk.
Hey nobody can predict tomorrow. You can get hit by a bus and then who cares about money and house :).
Life life king size :) may be after 10 years your GC is denied, but then for 10 years you lived in half million dollar house and enjoyed every second of it, rather than living in one bedroom apt.
Chill out and have a good night
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sc3
07-14 12:57 PM
USCIS has not changed any law they have re-interpreted an existing law which was unclear and some folks have said that CIS interprets laws based on inputs from congress to understand the intent behind the law. If you complain to CIS that you have changed law they will send you a polite reply that we do not make any laws we just implement it.
* When was it unclear?
* Why did it take so long for USCIS to see that the law was unclear?
* What caused USCIS to realize that the law was unclear?
* What caused them to change their interpretation?
* How did USCIS use up all of EB2-I numbers in the very first quarter? (Very illegal thing to do)
Come on, dont be so picky. You know what I mean when I said USCIS changed the law. Dont argue on syntax.
* When was it unclear?
* Why did it take so long for USCIS to see that the law was unclear?
* What caused USCIS to realize that the law was unclear?
* What caused them to change their interpretation?
* How did USCIS use up all of EB2-I numbers in the very first quarter? (Very illegal thing to do)
Come on, dont be so picky. You know what I mean when I said USCIS changed the law. Dont argue on syntax.
mariner5555
03-26 02:07 PM
So my view is that inflation is a bigger problem that Ben B does not want to tackle in the near future(3-4 months). Well in times of inflation your savings/investment is better in real-estate than anything else. But definitely NOT cash.
So although we might be near the bottom of real estate market, we can never guesstimate the bottom until it has passed. My advice is, negotiate hard(buyers market) and get into a deal now. As a safety net, you can ask for a long escrow(around 180 days). That way you can backout of the deal if things head south. You've only lost the deposit(subject to arbitration at least in California).
Someone pointed out that Visa Status is a smaller issue, the big issue is if you can hold onto your investment for atleast 5 years, you are golden.
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5 years is too less (you have to hold it for around 10 yrs minimum). 2 years the prices may/will fall. 2 years it would be steady and maybe start increasing slowly after that. so if you buy a house (depends on area ....but broadly) ..a 100K investment in RE (And if we take the best case scenario) after 5 years would be worth 80, 000. if you take inflation in to account.
in the end it is supply and demand -- supply is huge. where is the demand going to come from ?? immigration is tight and in the fast moving life -- people have fewer and fewer kids. if u want to be safe - cash is good (atleast principal is safe if you get around 4 percent return) ..it is best to have diversified portfolio. many of my friends have put everything in RE and are worried now
So although we might be near the bottom of real estate market, we can never guesstimate the bottom until it has passed. My advice is, negotiate hard(buyers market) and get into a deal now. As a safety net, you can ask for a long escrow(around 180 days). That way you can backout of the deal if things head south. You've only lost the deposit(subject to arbitration at least in California).
Someone pointed out that Visa Status is a smaller issue, the big issue is if you can hold onto your investment for atleast 5 years, you are golden.
-----------
5 years is too less (you have to hold it for around 10 yrs minimum). 2 years the prices may/will fall. 2 years it would be steady and maybe start increasing slowly after that. so if you buy a house (depends on area ....but broadly) ..a 100K investment in RE (And if we take the best case scenario) after 5 years would be worth 80, 000. if you take inflation in to account.
in the end it is supply and demand -- supply is huge. where is the demand going to come from ?? immigration is tight and in the fast moving life -- people have fewer and fewer kids. if u want to be safe - cash is good (atleast principal is safe if you get around 4 percent return) ..it is best to have diversified portfolio. many of my friends have put everything in RE and are worried now
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paskal
04-09 12:24 PM
Why do you need to hire other person if Joe is fit f
or the job though he is not as bright as other H1b person. For example you do not need IIT graduate for QA position. For example If you want a core system software programmer in TCP/IP level or semiconductor R&D you can go brightest in the World. Bill Gates is an exception. 95% of bright people will have degree or more in current world.
i can only answer from a personal perspective.
that logic works fine in some jobs and for those, that is exactly how it should be. for jobs that need some analysis/creative thinking etc it makes a huge difference. yell me why you would like to get a degree from the best school/ same degree right?
i am a physician, if i were recruiting tomorrow (and we are) a million things matter. education, experience, acquired skills, where the applicant worked, what the patient population was etc
by uscis rules anyone with board certification in our specialty is fine. if we advertise for more...we are breaking the law. if we take the better candidate with more skills...again if he /she has a visa, we breaking the law. pretty restrictive would you not say? understand that the group would gladly gladly hire an american if he fit in with the vision of what we need. but good candidates are scarce. and settling for the not so good bloke seems just not right.
any way which physician would you choose to go to? these days patients come to us after checking our detailed credentials on the website. They know when they walk in whther i trained at the mayo clinic or abcd community hospital. so yes it matters, to you and to my group.
or the job though he is not as bright as other H1b person. For example you do not need IIT graduate for QA position. For example If you want a core system software programmer in TCP/IP level or semiconductor R&D you can go brightest in the World. Bill Gates is an exception. 95% of bright people will have degree or more in current world.
i can only answer from a personal perspective.
that logic works fine in some jobs and for those, that is exactly how it should be. for jobs that need some analysis/creative thinking etc it makes a huge difference. yell me why you would like to get a degree from the best school/ same degree right?
i am a physician, if i were recruiting tomorrow (and we are) a million things matter. education, experience, acquired skills, where the applicant worked, what the patient population was etc
by uscis rules anyone with board certification in our specialty is fine. if we advertise for more...we are breaking the law. if we take the better candidate with more skills...again if he /she has a visa, we breaking the law. pretty restrictive would you not say? understand that the group would gladly gladly hire an american if he fit in with the vision of what we need. but good candidates are scarce. and settling for the not so good bloke seems just not right.
any way which physician would you choose to go to? these days patients come to us after checking our detailed credentials on the website. They know when they walk in whther i trained at the mayo clinic or abcd community hospital. so yes it matters, to you and to my group.
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h1techSlave
09-26 12:03 PM
Because of unexplained reasons Indians generally support Democrats. Even though Democrats generally do not care for India or Indians.
One of my collegues once told me it is because India is a democratic country:D. I told him to support the Republicans since India is a republic.
I am a big supporter of Obama and a big fan and am eagerly looking forward to see him as our next President of United States. As a legal highly skilled immigrant what can I expect? Well, not sure if I would see myself living here anymore. I have been in the green card queue for more than 8 years now and still waiting. Will Obama's administration do anything for people like me to help reduce backlog? I doubt such a thing will ever happen. I would see myself and people like me discouraged and start packing our bags and move on with life.
Why do I feel discouraged? If anything is going to happen for the immigrant community when Sen. Obama becomes the President, it is going to be in the lines of CIR 2007. There would be provisions to make illegal immigrants as legal and remove backlogs to family based quota whereas posing harsh restrictions on H1b visas and reducing Green Card quotas and scrap AC21 portability and try to experiment with some new kind of skilled immigration system.
The above is very evident based on the fact that Senator Durbin has been very hostile to EB immigrants. It is evident that Senator Durbin will make the calls when Senator Obama becomes the president.
Please post your opinions. This is a very important discussion. It is very important that the community see what is in store for us when the new Administration takes charge.
A lot of folks in the EB community are looking forward to 2009 thinking something will definitely happen. Yes, something will definitely happen - and that may not help us
One of my collegues once told me it is because India is a democratic country:D. I told him to support the Republicans since India is a republic.
I am a big supporter of Obama and a big fan and am eagerly looking forward to see him as our next President of United States. As a legal highly skilled immigrant what can I expect? Well, not sure if I would see myself living here anymore. I have been in the green card queue for more than 8 years now and still waiting. Will Obama's administration do anything for people like me to help reduce backlog? I doubt such a thing will ever happen. I would see myself and people like me discouraged and start packing our bags and move on with life.
Why do I feel discouraged? If anything is going to happen for the immigrant community when Sen. Obama becomes the President, it is going to be in the lines of CIR 2007. There would be provisions to make illegal immigrants as legal and remove backlogs to family based quota whereas posing harsh restrictions on H1b visas and reducing Green Card quotas and scrap AC21 portability and try to experiment with some new kind of skilled immigration system.
The above is very evident based on the fact that Senator Durbin has been very hostile to EB immigrants. It is evident that Senator Durbin will make the calls when Senator Obama becomes the president.
Please post your opinions. This is a very important discussion. It is very important that the community see what is in store for us when the new Administration takes charge.
A lot of folks in the EB community are looking forward to 2009 thinking something will definitely happen. Yes, something will definitely happen - and that may not help us
Amma
01-07 07:21 PM
to call all of these people as highly skilled . Don't know the decency and decorum of the forum.Fighting in the name of religion.
When you people are going to change ?
People with no skill is better than so called highly skilled but no brain .
When you people are going to change ?
People with no skill is better than so called highly skilled but no brain .
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conchshell
08-06 10:09 AM
All monkeys also interfiled and became lions.
This is too funny ... monkeys interfiling and becoming Lions :D:D
This is too funny ... monkeys interfiling and becoming Lions :D:D
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desi3933
08-05 11:22 AM
Nobody cares what qualifications u have. EB1, EB2 and EB3 is what matters at the end of the day.
This letter is utter nonsense. Admins, Moderators...pls stop this nuisance as this will cause internal fighting and end up in nobody receiving any benefits in the near future. If USCIS responds +vely to that letter, then do u think EB2s will keep quiet??? This will cause chaos and thus nobody will get anything out of it. Why is this thread still alive. Pani, the starter of this thread shud be banned for initiating this effort. Shud anything -ve happen to EB2s as an outcome of this, I'm gonna hunt that fellow and sue him for ruining my life.
Would you mind explaining a bit?
This letter is utter nonsense. Admins, Moderators...pls stop this nuisance as this will cause internal fighting and end up in nobody receiving any benefits in the near future. If USCIS responds +vely to that letter, then do u think EB2s will keep quiet??? This will cause chaos and thus nobody will get anything out of it. Why is this thread still alive. Pani, the starter of this thread shud be banned for initiating this effort. Shud anything -ve happen to EB2s as an outcome of this, I'm gonna hunt that fellow and sue him for ruining my life.
Would you mind explaining a bit?
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singhsa3
08-05 09:09 AM
Obviously you pissed of lot of people. So what is you plan? How would you approach this. Please explain the steps including your source of funding...
Friends,
I need to find out how many people are interested in pursuing this option, since the whole interfiling/PD porting business (based on a year 2000 memo) can seriously undermine the EB2 category.
I am currently pursuing some initial draft plans with some legal representation, so that a sweeping case may be filed to end this unfair practice. We need to plug this EB3-to-EB2 loophole, if there is any chance to be had for filers who have originally been EB2.
More than any other initiative, the removal of just this one unfair provision will greatly aid all original EB2 filers. Else, it can be clearly deduced that the massively backlogged EB3 filers will flock over to EB2 and backlog it by 8 years or more.
I also want to make this issue an action item for all EB2 folks volunteering for IV activities.
Thanks.
Friends,
I need to find out how many people are interested in pursuing this option, since the whole interfiling/PD porting business (based on a year 2000 memo) can seriously undermine the EB2 category.
I am currently pursuing some initial draft plans with some legal representation, so that a sweeping case may be filed to end this unfair practice. We need to plug this EB3-to-EB2 loophole, if there is any chance to be had for filers who have originally been EB2.
More than any other initiative, the removal of just this one unfair provision will greatly aid all original EB2 filers. Else, it can be clearly deduced that the massively backlogged EB3 filers will flock over to EB2 and backlog it by 8 years or more.
I also want to make this issue an action item for all EB2 folks volunteering for IV activities.
Thanks.
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nojoke
04-15 06:18 PM
kaiserose & NKR have made some mistakes by buying a costly home & wouldn't admit.
May God Bless you guys.
:D:D
May God Bless you guys.
:D:D
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bkarnik
08-05 05:26 PM
A lady tells her husband to go to the store to buy some cigarettes.He walks down to the store only to find it closed. So he goes into a nearby bar to use the vending machine.
At the bar he sees a beautiful woman and starts talking to her.They have a couple of beers and one thing leads to another and they end up in her apartment. After they've had their fun, he realizes its 3AM and says, "Oh no, its so late, my wife's going to kill me. Have you got any talcum powder?" She gives him some talcum powder, which he proceeds to rub on his hands and then he goes home.
His wife is waiting for him in the doorway and she is pretty angry.Where the hell have you been?". Well, honey, it's like this. I went to the store like you asked, but they were closed. So I Went to the bar to use the vending machine. I saw this great looking girl there and we had a few drinks and one thing led to another and I ended up in Bed with her.
"Oh yeah? Let me see your hands!"
She sees his hands are Covered with powder and says...
"You God damn liar!!! You were playing pool again!!!"
Moral of the story:
Always tell your wife the truth. She won't believe you anyway. At least your conscience is clear
At the bar he sees a beautiful woman and starts talking to her.They have a couple of beers and one thing leads to another and they end up in her apartment. After they've had their fun, he realizes its 3AM and says, "Oh no, its so late, my wife's going to kill me. Have you got any talcum powder?" She gives him some talcum powder, which he proceeds to rub on his hands and then he goes home.
His wife is waiting for him in the doorway and she is pretty angry.Where the hell have you been?". Well, honey, it's like this. I went to the store like you asked, but they were closed. So I Went to the bar to use the vending machine. I saw this great looking girl there and we had a few drinks and one thing led to another and I ended up in Bed with her.
"Oh yeah? Let me see your hands!"
She sees his hands are Covered with powder and says...
"You God damn liar!!! You were playing pool again!!!"
Moral of the story:
Always tell your wife the truth. She won't believe you anyway. At least your conscience is clear
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chanduv23
09-26 02:26 PM
OBAMA is for lesser H1B but more EB GC. He prefers workers who are entering the US to have intention to stay permanently than temporarily because it helps the economy.
That's the wisdom of Durbin amendment. Lesser H1B because you will get GC instead.
Everyone say "H1b is not good we want more GC". Then the whole thing moves towards a new points based system and everyone will support it saying - this will ensure US will have best and brightest. What happens to us???? We will be ignored
That's the wisdom of Durbin amendment. Lesser H1B because you will get GC instead.
Everyone say "H1b is not good we want more GC". Then the whole thing moves towards a new points based system and everyone will support it saying - this will ensure US will have best and brightest. What happens to us???? We will be ignored
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sayantan76
01-11 02:20 AM
Palestine was never a country. Even historian knows that there was a kingdom of Israel & Kingdom of Judah. The kings and the timeslines when the kingdoms were destroyed are also known. Due to numerous invasions there was a great diaspora of Jews to the other parts of the world. Even Jerusalem belongs to the Jews. The Romans under Titus burned down the Jewsish temple and killed entire tribes of Jews during the Jewish revolt against Rome in AD. 70. The modern state of Israel was in fact simply returing the ancient land of Israel to the Jews. Kashmir belongs to India. Pakistan has occupied Kashmir.
I hate selective use of historical context to justify certain acts.
First - going by your logic - we should perhaps consider returning entire Europe to Italy (since it was all Roman Empire) and also returning pretty much entire West Asia and parts of South Asia to Macedonia (Remember Alexander's campaign?). Kingdoms expanded and contracted based on the power and territoial ambitions of the ruling sovereign - ancient legends should not form basis for modern map drawing.
Second - since when have religious groups started having monopoly over a piece of land?....a geographical entity belongs to the natives of that area.....the natives may follow the same of different religions....Native Jews and Native Palestinians (you may not want to believe it - but Palestinians or philistines as a distinct population group existed even before the advent of Islam) have lived in the modern Israel + Palestine since time immemorial and the land belongs to these natives.....
To blame only Palentinians for the current aggressions is not really fair......and honestly, there is no moral victory or military superiority on display here on part of Israel here either......no one wins when innocent civilians and children die
I hate selective use of historical context to justify certain acts.
First - going by your logic - we should perhaps consider returning entire Europe to Italy (since it was all Roman Empire) and also returning pretty much entire West Asia and parts of South Asia to Macedonia (Remember Alexander's campaign?). Kingdoms expanded and contracted based on the power and territoial ambitions of the ruling sovereign - ancient legends should not form basis for modern map drawing.
Second - since when have religious groups started having monopoly over a piece of land?....a geographical entity belongs to the natives of that area.....the natives may follow the same of different religions....Native Jews and Native Palestinians (you may not want to believe it - but Palestinians or philistines as a distinct population group existed even before the advent of Islam) have lived in the modern Israel + Palestine since time immemorial and the land belongs to these natives.....
To blame only Palentinians for the current aggressions is not really fair......and honestly, there is no moral victory or military superiority on display here on part of Israel here either......no one wins when innocent civilians and children die
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Pagal
06-05 03:00 PM
This is your justification for renting? ....Which is why you will always be paying owners like me for a roof to live under.
Hello ValidIV,
Good for you that you are making some money off the real estate investments....but why generalize?
The right decision on whether to buy or rent depends on many factors including your financial capabilities, location, taxation and future plans.
For some, renting makes financial sense, for others buying! :)
Hello ValidIV,
Good for you that you are making some money off the real estate investments....but why generalize?
The right decision on whether to buy or rent depends on many factors including your financial capabilities, location, taxation and future plans.
For some, renting makes financial sense, for others buying! :)
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qualified_trash
05-17 01:51 PM
Qualified_trash,
IV core members have only 24 hours a day to do IV work and their full time jobs. As such, we have to channel our resources in the most productive way possible. Lou Dobbs is the media equivalent of FAIR, NumbersUSA, Tom Tancredo and company [Do get on to Lexis-Nexis and find out more about him.] We are civil in our encounters with the representatives of these groups, but it is not a productive use of our time to engage with them more than this.
As for dealing with lawmakers -- there too we spend our time productively. We haven't been hanging out with Jeff Sessions and James Sensenbrenner. We use other more reasonable lawmakers to work out deals with the anti-immigrant wing.
best,
Berkeleybee
Sounds good to me. I have also made my information available to the core group to be a volunteer. I believe it is more important to do some work rather than just give money. I understand that the work that IV is doing is going to benefit all of us tremendously.
As Sir Winston C once said -- "Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few."
Our fight may pale into comparison when you consider that he was discussing WWII. But the spirit needs to be the same from our side if we want to achieve the goal.
Nice blog entry by someone asking Mr Dobbs to put his money where his mouth is:
http://www.visalaw.com/05mar2/10mar205.html
IV core members have only 24 hours a day to do IV work and their full time jobs. As such, we have to channel our resources in the most productive way possible. Lou Dobbs is the media equivalent of FAIR, NumbersUSA, Tom Tancredo and company [Do get on to Lexis-Nexis and find out more about him.] We are civil in our encounters with the representatives of these groups, but it is not a productive use of our time to engage with them more than this.
As for dealing with lawmakers -- there too we spend our time productively. We haven't been hanging out with Jeff Sessions and James Sensenbrenner. We use other more reasonable lawmakers to work out deals with the anti-immigrant wing.
best,
Berkeleybee
Sounds good to me. I have also made my information available to the core group to be a volunteer. I believe it is more important to do some work rather than just give money. I understand that the work that IV is doing is going to benefit all of us tremendously.
As Sir Winston C once said -- "Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few."
Our fight may pale into comparison when you consider that he was discussing WWII. But the spirit needs to be the same from our side if we want to achieve the goal.
Nice blog entry by someone asking Mr Dobbs to put his money where his mouth is:
http://www.visalaw.com/05mar2/10mar205.html
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gc4me
12-18 02:10 PM
BTW, who is Antulay? I googled but no clue.
True. No doubt this needs investigation. But Antulay's intentions were horrible.
True. No doubt this needs investigation. But Antulay's intentions were horrible.
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msp1976
04-08 09:00 AM
Would you???
of course not....
The provision defeats the purpose of whole whistle blower clause...
of course not....
The provision defeats the purpose of whole whistle blower clause...
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GCOP
07-13 01:31 PM
I agree. We have involved in IV action Item. It is Simply our Hard Luck that, we all (EB3-I)are stuck in this situation. IV has tried for Bill every Single year Since about Last 3 Years, Organized rally. Nothing worked out for us. In the mean time EB-2 moved to 2006 and EB-3 is Still in 2001. I believe it is just our hard luck, that despite of all IV efforts & Our support to IV , No Result for Eb-3 Forward movement. NOW THE QUESTION IS WHICH ACTIONS CAN BRING THE RESULTS FOR EB-3 (I)
Guys I am getting the impression that EB-3- I did not act on IV action items..that's not true we have been actively involved in IV action items and have been contributing...
Guys I am getting the impression that EB-3- I did not act on IV action items..that's not true we have been actively involved in IV action items and have been contributing...
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mariner5555
04-20 01:04 AM
since nothing much is happening - I thought that I would post this - seems like a worst case scenario -but who knows ..some of his predictions have already come true ..this was interview on mar 24.
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Q. Where are home prices going?
A. Two years ago, I predicted home prices would fall cumulatively 20%, but now I believe it will be at least 30%.
With a 20% fall in home prices, about 16 million households are under water. They have negative equity, which means the value of their homes is below the value of their mortgages. With a 30% drop in prices, you have 21 million households that are in negative equity. And since the mortgages are no-recourse loans, essentially they can walk away.
Even if only half of the 16 million households were to walk away, that alone could lead to losses for the financial system of $1 trillion. Even a 20% drop in home values may imply losses of $1 trillion that are not priced into the market today. So that's the floor. Again, it could be higher — as much as $2 trillion — if prices fall 30% and more people walk.
Q. You are predicting problems in commercial real estate, which we haven't seen yet. When do you expect the crisis to hit?
A. The same kind of reckless lending practices that occurred in subprime also occurred in commercial real estate — things like really high loan-to-value ratios and inflated estimations of how much rent would increase. If you look at the CMBX index (which tracks bonds backed by real estate loans), the spreads imply a huge number of defaults on existing commercial real estate loans. More important, the market for new commercial real estate loans is totally frozen, like the one for subprime new originations.
Q. But when will this happen?
A. That shoe has not dropped yet. But I expect the severe recession in residential housing will lead to a severe recession in commercial real estate. The reason is simple: If you go west, you have entire ghost towns outside of Phoenix, Las Vegas and throughout California. Who is going to be building new shopping centers, shopping malls, offices and stores where you have ghost towns? Also, there has been a lot of commercial real estate activity in the last couple of years, including a huge increase in retail capacity at a time of consumer-led recession. So, I expect [a commercial real estate] collapse will occur in the next few quarters.
Q. How bad will things get?
A. I would argue this is the worst financial crisis the U.S. has had since the Great Depression. We haven't seen this type of real financial turmoil for the last 70 years. Of course, it's not going to be as bad as the Great Depression. But this isn't your typical run-of-the-mill recession that in the last two episodes lasted only eight months with a minor contraction in output. This is going to last at least 12 months and more likely 18 months, which is something we haven't seen in decades.
Q. So you expect the economy to start turning around in mid-2009?
A. The real economic activity, yes. But some parts of the system are going to be in a severe contraction for much longer; home prices are going to keep falling for another three years, in my view. And the financial mess is going to take years to clean up.
-----------------------------
---------
Q. Where are home prices going?
A. Two years ago, I predicted home prices would fall cumulatively 20%, but now I believe it will be at least 30%.
With a 20% fall in home prices, about 16 million households are under water. They have negative equity, which means the value of their homes is below the value of their mortgages. With a 30% drop in prices, you have 21 million households that are in negative equity. And since the mortgages are no-recourse loans, essentially they can walk away.
Even if only half of the 16 million households were to walk away, that alone could lead to losses for the financial system of $1 trillion. Even a 20% drop in home values may imply losses of $1 trillion that are not priced into the market today. So that's the floor. Again, it could be higher — as much as $2 trillion — if prices fall 30% and more people walk.
Q. You are predicting problems in commercial real estate, which we haven't seen yet. When do you expect the crisis to hit?
A. The same kind of reckless lending practices that occurred in subprime also occurred in commercial real estate — things like really high loan-to-value ratios and inflated estimations of how much rent would increase. If you look at the CMBX index (which tracks bonds backed by real estate loans), the spreads imply a huge number of defaults on existing commercial real estate loans. More important, the market for new commercial real estate loans is totally frozen, like the one for subprime new originations.
Q. But when will this happen?
A. That shoe has not dropped yet. But I expect the severe recession in residential housing will lead to a severe recession in commercial real estate. The reason is simple: If you go west, you have entire ghost towns outside of Phoenix, Las Vegas and throughout California. Who is going to be building new shopping centers, shopping malls, offices and stores where you have ghost towns? Also, there has been a lot of commercial real estate activity in the last couple of years, including a huge increase in retail capacity at a time of consumer-led recession. So, I expect [a commercial real estate] collapse will occur in the next few quarters.
Q. How bad will things get?
A. I would argue this is the worst financial crisis the U.S. has had since the Great Depression. We haven't seen this type of real financial turmoil for the last 70 years. Of course, it's not going to be as bad as the Great Depression. But this isn't your typical run-of-the-mill recession that in the last two episodes lasted only eight months with a minor contraction in output. This is going to last at least 12 months and more likely 18 months, which is something we haven't seen in decades.
Q. So you expect the economy to start turning around in mid-2009?
A. The real economic activity, yes. But some parts of the system are going to be in a severe contraction for much longer; home prices are going to keep falling for another three years, in my view. And the financial mess is going to take years to clean up.
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gcdreamer05
08-08 12:15 PM
There was a terrible bus accident. Unfortunately, no one survived the accident except a monkey which was on board and there were no witnesses. The police try to investigate further but they get no results. At last, they try to interrogate the monkey. The monkey seems to respond to their questions with gestures. Seeing that, they start asking the questions.
The police chief asks: "What were the people doing on the bus?"
The monkey shakes his head in a condemning manner and starts dancing around; meaning the people were dancing and having fun.
The chief asks: "Yeah, but what else were they doing?".
The monkey uses his hand and takes it to his mouth as if holding a bottle.
The chief says: "Oh! They were drinking, huh?!" The chief continues, "Okay, were they doing anything else?"
The monkey nods his head and moves his mouth back and forth, meaning they were talking.
The chief loses his patience: "If they were having such a great time, who was driving the stupid bus then?"
The monkey cheerfully swings his arms to the sides as if grabbing a wheel.
The police chief asks: "What were the people doing on the bus?"
The monkey shakes his head in a condemning manner and starts dancing around; meaning the people were dancing and having fun.
The chief asks: "Yeah, but what else were they doing?".
The monkey uses his hand and takes it to his mouth as if holding a bottle.
The chief says: "Oh! They were drinking, huh?!" The chief continues, "Okay, were they doing anything else?"
The monkey nods his head and moves his mouth back and forth, meaning they were talking.
The chief loses his patience: "If they were having such a great time, who was driving the stupid bus then?"
The monkey cheerfully swings his arms to the sides as if grabbing a wheel.
ShantiRam
07-11 09:12 PM
My employer back in 2001 and 2002 did not pay me in a consistent way..I was paid once in every three months during the time I was in bench. I have the W2 returns from those two years which shows average income of only 29K. However I had valid visa status and h1b approval from my employer as well as employment verification letter from them. Now i am with a new employer since 2003 and do not have any problems with them and get paid regurarly. After reading manub's post I am also worried if my I485 will be denied whenever I apply for it... or is there somethings I can take care of before? It is not my fault that the employer did not pay me consistently - right?
Anyone - united nations - please advice.
Anyone - united nations - please advice.